TMB sees the trend of the Thai agricultural sector in '64 recovering income growth of 2.9%, yield increasing 1.5%.

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The TMB Analytics Center assesses the situation of the Thai agricultural sector in 2021, expecting revenues to increase 2.9% from the previous year, or total income of 8.96 billion, based on the trend of agricultural prices this year. Will continue to expand from the previous year at 1.4% due to the demand for agricultural products in the world market. And higher oil prices than the previous year

The yield will increase 1.5% from the previous year due to the La Nina phenomenon, which resulted in the rainfall  SLOT  tends to increase from June to August 20, which is a positive effect for planting. Plants during the production season While the beginning of the year Some areas may not have enough water to use. This was due to the low water content in the dam in early 2021, especially in the northern and upper central regions. As a result, during this period, the yield of crops in the irrigation area tends to decline.

If drilling into the supply side Found that the situation of agricultural production in the region According to the assessment of the Meteorological Department It was found that rainfall throughout the country this year will be 10-15% greater than normal, with the phenomenon of La Niña to return again. And the more rainfall from March to August, which is 20% less than the previous year, the regions that benefit from rainfall the most are the North, the East, and the North. North And south west coast Which if you look at the overall picture Increased rainfall in the second half of the year is still a favorable factor for agriculture.

For the demand side of agricultural products The TMB Economic Analysis Center has adopted agricultural market forecasts in conjunction with the above supply trends. This makes it possible to assess the trend of agricultural products in 2021 into 2 product groups according to income growth as follows:

Agricultural products that are promising.
Meat, pigs and chickens, the price trend is increasing due to government stimulus such as half and we win.In addition, expansion of piglet exports to neighboring countries to replace pigs affected by swine fever ( African Swine Fever) and processed meat exports to Hong Kong and China growing up. Will be a supporting factor in the second half of the year The income will increase by 9% on average.
Maize The trend of price increases on the demand for animal feed production. Due to the increasing demand for meat from domestic and export markets. While in the north Which is the area with the highest cultivation of maize This was benefited from the rainfall that was 20% more than the same period of last year, resulting in an increase in production as well as prices. Overall, revenue is expected to increase by an average of 4.1%.
Rubber Prices tend to increase due to the demand for rubber from both domestic and international markets. Especially Using rubber for the manufacture of medical gloves Continuing with the prevailing COVID-19 epidemic situation, revenue is forecast to increase by an average of 3.3%.
Agricultural products that tend to stabilize
Rice yield this year is expected to be higher than last year. Even in irrigated rice planting areas in the upper central and lower northern regions Will be affected by the low water content in the dam. Competitiveness, lower export prices of Thai rice compared to competitors. From the baht tends to appreciate Causing the price of Thai rice to be higher than its competitors Including container shortages and rising freight charges. Causing unable to deliver products on schedule It is expected that rice income will increase an average of 2.7% mainly from the increase in output.
Cassava tends to increase in price. Due to the increasing demand for cassava products in China. To be used to produce ethanol as a substitute for high-priced maize with lower stock inventory. Which, if measured according to the export value The Chinese market accounts for up to 66% of total exports. However, cassava output tends to slow down. From the risk of price suppression to buy fresh cassava from cassava product manufacturers It is forecast that revenue from cassava will rise slightly at 1.8%.
Palm oil this year, the price level remained high from the previous year. Due to the increase in domestic market demand from the policy to use diesel B10 as a standard diesel oil. And demand for cooking improved. While the output was at a similar level from the previous year. Therefore, revenue is expected to increase slightly at 1.3%.
Sugar cane production in the country this year. Likely to shrink due to the decision to reduce the production of local farmers. This was due to the decline in sugarcane prices in the previous year and the drought problem. Causing the sugar produced for export to be less Together with the trend of currency appreciation It is forecast that income from cane and sugar will drop an average of 0.6%.
Seafood Although the image of Thai seafood products tends to be better than the previous year in demand The European Union (EU) released the yellow card status for Thailand on the issue of Illegal Unreported and Unregulated Fishing (IUU Fishing). As a result, both domestic and foreign consumers have reduced their consumption of seafood and turned to the purchase of lower-priced meat. Preferential tariffs (GSPs) in the US and EU markets make Thai seafood more expensive compared to competitors, especially China, India and Vietnam. These factors are driving demand. And the supply is further limited. It is forecast that income in this segment will drop by an average of 1.8%.
TMB Economic Analysis Center stated that the forecast of agricultural products. Due to the market structure of Thai agricultural products, most of them depend on the export market which is highly competitive. And the baht that tends to appreciate in 2021 is a major risk factor to reduce the competitiveness of Thai agricultural products.