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HD US-China policy: Biden is bringing together Japan, Australia and India to stare down China

Forget France, AUKUS and nuclear-powered submarines — one of the most important moments for the future of US influence in Asia is due to take place on Friday in Washington.

US President Joe Biden is holding the first in-person meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as “the Quad,” an informal strategic forum of the United States, Australia, Japan and India — all democratic countries with a vested interest in countering China’s rise in Asia.
Biden will be joined in Washington by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Indian leader Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison to discuss “promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific,” according to the White House.
The meeting comes at a time of great change for US policy in Asia. As the Biden administration moves to strengthen its diplomatic partnerships in the region, Japan is taking an increasingly hawkish view of China’s military buildup. At the same time, Australia’s AUKUS defense pact with the US and the United Kingdom has solidified Washington’s commitment to Asia while making some important Southeast Asian partners uneasy.

At this critical point, what the Quad chooses to do next is more important than ever. Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Malcolm Davis said compared to its early roots under the George W. Bush administration, the Quad had evolved from a “low key political and economic dialogue” to a very significant player in the Asia Pacific region.
“The Quad is not an Asian NATO … but at the same time it is clearly moving in the direction of a cooperative security approach,” Davis said.
US President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken participate in a virtual meeting with leaders of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue countries on March 12 in the White House.
US President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken participate in a virtual meeting with leaders of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue countries on March 12 in the White House.
Countering China
The Quad was initially proposed in 2007, but was put on hold for a decade until it was revived under former US President Donald Trump amid China’s rise as an economic and military superpower.
The diplomatic environment in Asia has changed markedly since that 2017 revival — and the Quad has taken on a greater significance.
In April 2020, relations between Australia and China took a major downturn after Australia’s Morrison called for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid-19. Beijing retaliated by imposing punitive restrictions on Australian goods and the relationship is yet to recover.

Biden has call with Xi Jinping 02:39
Glaser said she believed the August statement could have preempted a reference to Taiwan in the meeting of the Quad leaders this week, which would be an unusually strong step by the Indian government.
“I think that will be quite a wake-up call (for Beijing). They’ve been hearing it from Australia and Japan but never from India,” she said.
A united Quad could help deter any further aggression by the Chinese government toward Taiwan, according to Ben Scott, director of the Australia’s Security and the Rules-based Order Project at Sydney’s Lowy Institute.
However, he said nuance would be important in any messaging to avoid a spiral into potential confrontation. “There’s always a risk of going too far and tipping into provocation,” he said.
US President Joe Biden speaks on national security with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, right, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, left, in East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on September 15.
US President Joe Biden speaks on national security with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, right, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, left, in East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on September 15.
AUKUS fallout
The Quad meeting might come at a useful moment for the US, Scott said — there’s never been a better time for Washington to show it is part of a broad, cohesive community in Asia.
Scott said while he believed the AUKUS agreement had been a positive step for US diplomacy in Asia, it had also presented a very “Anglosphere” face to the region.
“It is self described as a club of maritime democracies which automatically excludes most of Southeast Asia,” Scott said. “(And) the center of gravity for (US-China) competition is in Southeast Asia.”
Analysis: Australia's decades-long balancing act between the US and China is over. It chose Washington
Analysis: Australia’s decades-long balancing act between the US and China is over. It chose Washington
In a September 17 statement, Indonesia said it was “deeply concerned” about an arms race in Asia Pacific, and called on Australia to respect international law and its commitment to peace and stability. A day later, Malaysia said the AUKUS deal could provoke other powers to “act more aggressively in the region, especially the South China Sea.”
By being part of a larger cooperative agreement with Japan and India, Scott said the US can present a more diverse face to Southeast Asia, among other parts of the continent — one that isn’t solely concentrated on military brinksmanship but also economic and political cooperation.

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