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anticipated drug launches of 2022 For Hospitals

Well, there’s a real eclectic mix of targets here, from Alzheimer’s disease and diabetes to psoriasis and lung cancer. And, according to the life sciences data crunchers at Evaluate Vantage, the top 10 most anticipated drugs are set to make a collective $26.9 billion by the middle of the decade.

It’s Eli Lilly’s year in 2022, with the top two biggest prospects belonging to the Big Pharma and taking nearly half that total with just shy of $11 billion in potential earnings from its prospective drugs in Alzheimer’s and diabetes, respectively.

Overall, it’s the Alzheimer's drug prospects that dominate the sales charts as a group, with Lilly’s donanemab worth potentially $6 billion by 2026 and Roche’s rival gantenerumab set to take $2.5 billion.

That’s $8.5 billion in total potential in a disease area that hadn't produced a new therapy for nearly two decades. But with Biogen’s ongoing woes with Aduhelm—which also had sky-high expectations last year but has faced what could be the worst launch in drug history—the Lilly and Roche predictions may be some of the riskiest we’ve seen in many years.

It’s also a good launch year for Bristol Myers Squibb, which, like Lilly, has two drugs in the top 10. Its hopefuls mavacamten in cardiomyopathy and deucravacitinib in psoriasis and autoimmune disorders are together worth $4 billion in predicted peak sales.

But it’s not been an easy path to 2022 for all of the top 10: Johnson & Johnson and Legend Biotech were hit by an extended FDA review that pushed an expected decision from November to late February over manufacturing and technical concerns. And mavacamten had its own FDA delay to contend with.

And, while Alzheimer's drugs may be the riskiest proposition launch-wise, Reata Pharmaceuticals is at the highest risk of falling short of an approval. An FDA advisory committee unanimously rejected its kidney disease hopeful bardoxolone last year, putting its projected $2.2 billion in 2026 sales in serious jeopardy.

Check out the top 10 most anticipated drug launches of the year below. You can find last year's edition here. As always, let us know your thoughts on these or any upcoming meds you think we missed.

Evaluate had forecast peak sales for that drug at around $4.8 billion in 2026. This year, it’s Eli Lilly’s turn to take the top spot, with Evaluate eyeing a beefier $6 billion in sales for its Alzheimer’s hopeful donanemab. Like Aduhelm, donanemab is also an anti-amyloid beta monoclonal antibody, but Lilly hopes to best its rival and thus gain greater market share.

These are big figures, but there's also plenty of room for doubt that the drugs using this approach to fight Alzheimer's—and that includes No. 3 on our list, another Alzheimer's hopeful from Roche—can actually measure up to these estimates. Biogen, in fact, only made $300,000 from Aduhelm in the third quarter of 2021.

And there's a reason for that: An FDA advisory panel originally rejected the drug, which has questionable efficacy and fresh safety concerns, but the agency granted an accelerated approval based on biomarker evidence.

As Biogen's biomarker evidence showed, the drug can clear sticky proteins, known as amyloid, that can clog the brain. It is believed that amyloid plaques could be an underlying cause of Alzheimer's, though this has not been directly proven, and the theory has seen many drugs fail in the past. It also remains an open question as to whether clearing it can actually help reduce Alzheimer’s symptoms.

But the FDA, in approving Aduhelm, set a precedent that clearing amyloid is an acceptable bar for getting an Alzheimer's drug on the market. Hence, after nearly two decades of no new drugs for the disease, Roche, Lilly and other drugmakers have suddenly jumped back into action.

Lilly is not going in with blind optimism. Mindful of Biogen’s woes, the Big Pharma decided last year to run a head-to-head clinical trial for donanemab against Aduhelm. Analysts from Evercore ISI see donanemab as reducing amyloid more than other similar drugs—including Aduhelm—which could give it a market edge.

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